Voting Intention – 26th June

26th June 2012

Another 11 point lead for Labour on 42% ahead of 31% for the Conservatives with both main parties on the exact same share of the vote as they were in the last survey. The Lib Dems and UKIP have traded places again with 8% and 9% respectively, the mirror opposite of their figures in the last survey.

With the Lib Dems slipping a point, Labour’s lead over the total coalition share increases to 3 points from 2 points last time.

In the period since the last survey finished on June 11th we’ve seen celebrity tax scandals, Education Secretary Michael Gove’s plan to replace GCSE’s with O-Levels, David Cameron suggesting that under-25s on welfare should move back in with their parents and another government U-Turn on fuel duty. All of which seems to have had absolutely no effect on voting intention.

  • Indeed the only real change is a slight improvement in the approval ratings for both Prime Minister David Cameron and Labour leader Ed Miliband.
  • Mr Cameron’s approval rating has climbed slightly to 32% while his disapproval rating has dropped to 52% giving him a net score of -20% compared to -24% in the last survey.
  • However, Ed Miliband’s ratings have improved to the best figure recorded for him in an Opinium survey. 26% approve (the best figure Mr Miliband has seen) while 39% disapprove giving the Labour leader a net rating of -13%. As the chart below shows, Mr Miliband’s personal figures have been improving gradually over the past few months so it remains to be seen whether this week’s figure is a too positive outlier or just a continuation of that trend.
  • Mr Clegg’s net approval rating is -45% with his approval remaining at 14% and disapproval declining to 59%

Topline Voting Intention

  % Change
Conservative 31 n/c
Labour 42 n/c
Liberal Democrats 8 -1
Other parties 19 +1

Other Parties (breakdown)

  % Change
UKIP 9 +1
Green 4 n/c
SNP 3 n/c
BNP 2 n/c
Plaid Cymru 0 -1
Other 1 n/c

Approval ratings

  % Approve % Disapprove Net rating Net rating (own party)
David Cameron 32% 52% -20% +75%
Ed Miliband 26% 39% -13% +35%
Nick Clegg 14% 59% -45% +44%

Voting Intention Tracker

Party leader net approval ratings

Opinium Research carried out an online survey of 1,959 GB adults aged 18+ from 26th to 28th June 2012. Results have been weighted to nationally representative criteria.

Interview Method and Sample

This survey is conducted online by CAWI (computer aided web interviewing), using Opinium’s online research panel of circa 30,000 individuals. This research is run from a representative sample of GB adults (aged 18+ in England, Scotland and Wales). The sample is scientifically defined from pre-collected registration data containing gender, age (18-34, 35-54, and 55+), region (North East, North West, Yorkshire and Humberside, East Midlands, West Midlands, East of England, London, South East, South West, Wales, and Scotland), working status and social grade to match the latest published ONS figures.

Opinium also takes into account differential response rates from the different demographic groups, to ensure the sample is representative.