Political Polling – 31st May 2016

31st May 2016

In the referendum, 43% plan to vote to remain in the EU vs. 41% who plan to vote to leave.

However, these results mask a larger swing to Leave due to this being the first poll to incorporate weighting based on social attitudes. In previous surveys we have found that the answers to a number of questions on issues such as efforts to reduce discrimination against ethnic minorities or whether respondents felt more English or British produced results that were significantly more socially conservative than comparative polls or academic studies. Without these changes, our results would have shown a slight lead for Leave instead of for Remain.

A fuller explanation of these changes and the effect they have will be posted on Monday.

The move towards Leave can also be seen in our “nudge” question which asks undecided respondents whether they lean one way or another.

In our last poll, 47% leaned towards Remaining while 32% leaned the other way. In this latest poll, undecideds are nearly evenly split with 36% leaning towards staying in the EU and 33% towards Leave.

Opinium Research carried out an online survey of 2,007 UK adults aged 18+ from 31st May 2016 to 3rd June. Results have been weighted to nationally representative criteria.