Political Polling – 25th February 2014

25th February 2014

Labour’s lead over the Conservatives has dropped from 9 points to 5 points, putting the parties at their closest since October 2013.

Ed Miliband’s party has dropped to 34%, the lowest share the party has seen in an Opinium survey since the end of 2010. The Conservatives, however, remain below 30%, gaining a point on the last poll to reach 29%. Labour’s falling vote share is due to gains for the Lib Dems (10%, rising above 8% for the first time since November) while UKIP have gained two points to reach 19%.

Voting Intention Tracker
Voting Intention Tracker (including UKIP)

  % Change
Conservative 29 +1
Labour 34 -1
Liberal Democrats 10 +2
Other parties 27 n/c

Other Parties (breakdown)

  % Change
UKIP 19 +2
Green 3 +1
SNP 3 -1
BNP 1 n/c
Plaid Cymru 0 -1
Other 1 n/c

Approval ratings

  • While Ed Miliband’s ratings have held relatively steady, dropping a point to -17%, David Cameron has pulled away again with his net approval ratings rising from -14% to -10%
  • Nick Clegg has seen his net rating drop slightly to -44% from -42%. However, in line with his party’s increased vote share, the Deputy Prime Minister’s raw approval figure is increased to 17%, the highest we have recorded for Mr Clegg since January 2013
  % Approve % Disapprove Net rating Net rating (own party)
David Cameron 37% 47% -10% +87%
Ed Miliband 26% 43% -17% +47%
Nick Clegg 17% 61% -44% +56%

Opinium Research carried out an online survey of 1,946 GB adults aged 18+ from 25th to 28th February 2014. Results have been weighted to nationally representative criteria.

Interview Method and Sample

This survey is conducted online by CAWI (computer aided web interviewing), using Opinium’s online research panel of circa 30,000 individuals. This research is run from a representative sample of GB adults (aged 18+ in England, Scotland and Wales). The sample is defined from pre-collected registration data containing gender, age (18-34, 35-54, and 55+), region (North East, North West, Yorkshire and Humberside, East Midlands, West Midlands, East of England, London, South East, South West, Wales, and Scotland), working status and social grade to match the latest published ONS figures.

Opinium also takes into account differential response rates from the different demographic groups, to ensure the sample is representative.