Political Polling – 23rd July 2013

23rd July 2013

Labour and the Conservatives both gain a point to 39% and 28% respectively, maintaining Labour’s 11 point lead. The Lib Dems rise to 8% and UKIP drop to 16%, their lowest figure in an Opinium poll since March

  • David Cameron continues his recent approval rating rally with a net rating of -17%, five points ahead of Labour leader Ed Miliband on -22%
  • 33% approve of the Prime Minister’s performance while 50% disapprove compared to 22% who approve of the Labour leader and 44% who disapprove
  • As the chart below shows, while Mr Cameron has traditionally had a higher raw approval rating than Mr Miliband, he has tended to lag in the net approval stakes due to more people disapproving of him. However, the prime minister is currently enjoying his longest period ahead of the Labour leader since the 2012 budget caused his, and his party, to plummet in the polls
  • Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg has a net rating of -46% with 13% approving and 59% disapproving

Approval rating tracker (% who approve)

Net approval rating tracker (% approve minus % disapprove)
This week’s topical questions focused on favourable views of each party and we’ll have some analysis of these views later in the week.

Topline Voting Intention

  % Change
Conservative 28 +1
Labour 39 +1
Liberal Democrats 8 +2
Other parties 25 -3

Other Parties (breakdown)

  % Change
UKIP 16 -3
Green 3 -1
SNP 4 n/c
BNP 1 n/c
Plaid Cymru 0 n/c
Other 1 n/c

Approval ratings

  % Approve % Disapprove Net rating Net rating (own party)
David Cameron 33% 50% -17% +86%
Ed Miliband 22% 44% -22% +34%
Nick Clegg 13% 59% -46% +29%

Voting Intention Tracker
Voting Intention Tracker (including UKIP)

Opinium Research carried out an online survey of 1,935 GB adults aged 18+ from 23rd – 26th July 2013. Results have been weighted to nationally representative criteria.

Interview Method and Sample

This survey is conducted online by CAWI (computer aided web interviewing), using Opinium’s online research panel of circa 30,000 individuals. This research is run from a representative sample of GB adults (aged 18+ in England, Scotland and Wales). The sample is defined from pre-collected registration data containing gender, age (18-34, 35-54, and 55+), region (North East, North West, Yorkshire and Humberside, East Midlands, West Midlands, East of England, London, South East, South West, Wales, and Scotland), working status and social grade to match the latest published ONS figures.

Opinium also takes into account differential response rates from the different demographic groups, to ensure the sample is representative.